According to the article “Three Observations” by Sam Altman, we are at a turning point in artificial intelligence (AI) development. Altman invites us to reflect on how AI, particularly the much anticipated AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), will radically transform our society in the coming decades. While the concepts may sound technical, the message is clear: the digital revolution is already underway, and its effects will be felt in every corner of our lives.
The Arrival of AGI: A Paradigm Shift?
Altman introduces the concept of AGI, an intelligence capable of tackling complex problems in multiple disciplines that are on par with what humans do. It is predicted that by 2027, we could have systems with pervasive capabilities that, like each generation of technology (electricity, transistors, computers, internet), will drive transformational change up to 10 times greater than previous innovations. While many remain immersed in their daily concerns, this disruptive change is brewing on a grand scale.
Are we really that close?
As I discussed in my previous article, can machines really think like a human being or is this just an illusion? Melanie Mitchell, in her book Artificial Intelligence: A Guide for Thinking Beings, inspired by the ideas of Douglas Hofstadter, questions not only the imminence of AGI but also the possibility of achieving truly general intelligence without the ability to learn and experience the world from a human perspective.
Despite impressive advances in power and scalability, artificial intelligence is still far from replicating the complexity of human thinking, which involves intuition, context, and a holistic understanding of the world. This perspective reminds us that while investment in resources may drive certain aspects of AI, accurate emulation of human intelligence may require much deeper and more disruptive advances.
This is intimately linked to having a body that interacts with the environment, senses, feels, and adapts physically and emotionally. This limitation suggests that, although advances in processing and algorithms may bring us closer to replicating certain aspects of human reasoning, the absence of sensory and bodily experience could be a crucial obstacle to achieving an AGI that understands and interacts with the world holistically, just as a human being does.
Three Key Observations on the Future of AI
1. Model Intelligence Grows with Resources
Altman points out that an AI model’s capacity increases logarithmically as a function of the resources invested in its training and execution. In other words, the greater the investment in computation, data, and energy, the more intelligence we can achieve. Companies such as OpenAI and Microsoft are committing hundreds of billions of dollars to power these developments. Ambitious projects, such as the Stargate data center, seek to take infrastructure to unprecedented levels to maximize AI performance.
This could contradict the development of other models such as DeepSeek that I told you about recently, in which we saw how the Chinese company that developed it managed to train the model with an a priori quite limited budget.
Do you think we need to rethink how R&D resources are distributed so that these advances are of fundamental and widespread benefit to society?
2. The Exponential Reduction in the Cost of AI
One of the most striking points is the rapid decline in the cost of using AI, dropping by as much as 10 times every 12 months. In perspective, the price per token in models such as GPT-4 has fallen dramatically, by as much as 150 times in specific periods, far exceeding Moore’s Law. This implies that AI will become increasingly accessible, allowing individuals and businesses of all sizes to take advantage of its benefits.
How do you think this drastic reduction in costs will change the competitiveness of your industry or business?
3. The Socioeconomic Value of AI Grows Exponentially
As AI becomes cheaper and more widespread, its impact on productivity and economic value multiplies exponentially. Imagine a future where each person, supported by virtual assistants operating 24/7 without pause, can achieve more impact than today’s most influential figures. This transformative growth will not only revolutionize entire industries but also redefine the way we think about work and collaboration.
Could democratizing access to AI be the great equalizer that allows everyone to reach unprecedented productivity levels?
Impact on Work, the Economy and Society
The advent of AGI promises to radically change not only the way we work but also the very structure of the economy. Let us envision a scenario in which “virtual colleagues” manage millions of tasks simultaneously, creating an economy that operates uninterruptedly, without human error or pause. However, these advances also pose significant challenges: inequality between sectors that benefit and those that could be left behind and the risk of AI being used for authoritarian purposes, such as mass surveillance. We have discussed this issue in countless posts, and it, in my opinion, poses a very real threat.
Altman proposes a disruptive model: the “Universal Basic Compute (UBC),” a kind of digital basic income that ensures every individual has minimum access to the computing capacity needed to drive their work, research, and creativity.
Towards an Inescapable Future
Sam Altman’s vision is compelling: our reality will change irreversibly in less than a decade. With its exponential growth and ability to become cheaper, AI will become an omnipresent tool that will redefine productivity, creativity, and how we relate to the world. The key will be to adapt today, learn, and use new technological tools to avoid being left behind in an increasingly complex environment.
I will leave you with exciting content related to the same topic generated by AIGRID. Do not miss it.
The AI revolution is not a distant threat; it is an opportunity to reinvent our future. Are you ready to participate in this change?
Please share your opinion and join this exciting debate on the impact of AI on our society!
Have a good week!
