{"id":33924,"date":"2026-06-08T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-08T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/salvadorvilalta.com\/?p=33924"},"modified":"2026-06-03T21:32:03","modified_gmt":"2026-06-03T19:32:03","slug":"the-unprofitable-ai-layoff-and-the-study-that-should-give-more-than-one-ceo-sleepless-nights","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/salvadorvilalta.com\/en\/the-unprofitable-ai-layoff-and-the-study-that-should-give-more-than-one-ceo-sleepless-nights\/","title":{"rendered":"The unprofitable AI layoff and the study that should give more than one CEO sleepless nights."},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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There is a phrase that has become very fashionable on boards. It goes something like this: “We are implementing AI to be more efficient”.<\/strong> <\/p>

Said out loud it sounds impeccable, but the problem is the tagline that almost always follows: “…and of course, that means we’re going to have to adjust the equipment”.<\/strong><\/p>

And that’s where I get a question that I usually don’t like at all: how do you know that this adjustment is going to pay off? Paper can hold everything, but it is quite another thing what the numbers say when someone bothers to look at them seriously. <\/p>

And it turns out that this week someone has bothered to look at them. The numbers are on the table and, frankly, they don’t tell the movie we’ve been sold. <\/p>

Remember a few months ago when I told you about Jack Dorsey firing 4,000 people at Block<\/a> and blaming it on artificial intelligence? Clearly, that seemed to me a rare case, a peculiar CEO doing one of his own, and so I told you about it. Well, I was clearly wrong about one thing: it was not a rare case; it was the first frame of a movie that now, with hindsight, begins to take the form of a pattern and an uncomfortable detail that made me sit down to write this. <\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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The study that almost no one has read calmly<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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In mid-May, Fortune published an analysis of a Gartner study<\/a> that went rather under the radar amid so much noise, and which, to me, seems to be one of the most important pieces published this year on the subject. Gartner went to ask 350 executives of companies with a turnover of more than a billion dollars a year (serious people, not startups playing roulette with money from a fund) and what they found is one of those things that make you reread the paragraph twice: Eight out of ten of those who had piloted AI acknowledged having cut staff, but they cut it exactly the same whether the technology was giving them a return or not. <\/p>

The analyst who led the study summed it up with a phrase that struck me related to pursuing value only by cutting heads. She said, “It will probably lead most organizations down a path of limited returns.” If we translate this into “Romansh,” we might conclude that the fire-then-save-then-profit recipe is not working as the slide promised.<\/b> <\/p>

But there is one piece of information in the study that, for me, changes everything. It turns out that the companies that reported high ROI with AI were not the same ones making cuts (and this is suspicious). In fact, the proportion of layoffs was almost identical between those earning a lot with AI and those earning little or losing out. <\/p>

If you think about it for a second, this is devastating, because if firing were really the lever that triggers the return, these two groups should be little or nothing alike, and it turns out that they are alike in every way. So where was the real value? In what Gartner calls “people amplification”<\/b> (using the machine to make your people do more and do it better), not to send them home and keep half the team and twice as many bugs. <\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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Meanwhile, in the real world, 11,000 people in a single day<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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Just because a study says one thing does not mean that the market listens to it; quite the opposite. The same month this report came out was probably the worst month for technology layoffs so far this year. On May 20, an ordinary Wednesday, Meta began notifying some 8,000 people<\/a> that they would be laid off (about 10% of its workforce) and canceled another 6,000 open vacancies. <\/p>

That same day Intuit announced a 17% cut in its global workforce<\/a>, some 3,000 jobs, with CEO Sasan Goodarzi explaining that he was refocusing TurboTax, QuickBooks and Credit Karma on AI products with smaller teams. Do the math: more than 11,000 families affected in a single day, and the two companies making money hand over fist. <\/p>

That’s the other part that doesn’t sit right with me: Meta was coming off a quarter with record revenues; in fact, it’s not exactly a company that was borrowing to make ends meet. What’s going on reveals something quite different and that is that it has shot up its investment forecast for 2026 to a range of between $125 billion and $145 billion, up from $72.2 billion a year earlier, almost double. And all that money is going to the same thing: chips, data centers, power, in other words, the infrastructure that AI needs to function. They cut people through one door in order to pay the AI bill through the other.<\/b> This is just the mechanism we talked about when I told about Microsoft cancelling Claude Code licenses,<\/a> not on a whim but because it had looked at what it cost. The economics of enterprise AI are getting very expensive, and someone has to pay for it; at the moment, that someone is payroll. <\/p>

Fortune once called this the “doom loop”<\/b> of jobs, the apocalyptic loop, and I think it’s the best label I’ve seen: you cut back to free up cash, you put that cash into AI infrastructure, the AI still doesn’t give you the promised return, margins keep squeezing… and you cut back again. A dog chewing its own tail, but with real people inside.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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And this is where someone will tell me I'm exaggerating.<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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The comfort of the narrative is precisely what makes it dangerous, because it has become unquestioned. If you come out and say “I’m firing because AI already does that job,” Wall Street applauds you and you look like a visionary with a vision for the future. If you say “I’m firing because I went too far in pandemic hiring and now I need liquidity for my data centers,” well, you look like a regular at the shareholder meeting. It is exactly the AI-washing trap<\/b> that we already gutted with the Dorsey case, only now we go one step higher. Even Sam Altman himself acknowledges it, who admitted a few months ago candidly that “there is some AI-washing, people blaming AI for layoffs they would do anyway”, although he later added that there is also real displacement, of course. It would be worth paying some attention to all this, don’t you think? <\/p>

It’s also worth putting the hype to bed with a fact that helps you not to go crazy: the consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which has been counting U.S. layoffs one by one for decades, estimates that so far this year the cuts directly attributed to AI are around 49,000,<\/b> a figure that impresses until you put it next to the hundreds of thousands of total tech layoffs and realize that AI is a part of the story, not the whole story. Neither is AI the plague that takes all the jobs, nor is it entirely innocent. The truth, as almost always, lives in a rather uncomfortable middle ground. <\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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Who you are really touching (which is not who you think it is)<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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And here comes the twist that worries me the most about all this, because it goes below the radar. When we think of “AI layoffs,” we imagine a 50-year-old man who is put out of work overnight by a machine, and it turns out that the data point in just the other direction: the clearest blow is not falling on those who already have jobs, but on those who are trying to get their first one. A Yale analysis<\/a> suggests that unemployment among recent graduates is already hovering around 6% and has been rising at about twice the rate of the rest of the workforce since 2022<\/b>. AI job destruction, they say, is coming even before careers can get off the ground. <\/p>

And it has a perverse logic when you think about it, because the intern, the junior, the one who comes in to do the repetitive tasks of a lifetime… that’s precisely the profile that an AI agent best mimics today. So companies, in many cases, are not firing the junior; they have simply stopped hiring them,<\/b> and this does not appear in any statistics on layoffs, but it is just as real, if not more so, and certainly much quieter. And silent changes, as you know, are usually the worst managed. <\/p>

It’s gone so far that even politicians have started legislating, which is a sign. On May 21, California Governor Gavin Newsom signed an executive order<\/a> they call “the first of its kind” to prepare workers, small businesses and communities for AI disruption in employment, though let’s be honest with what it is: it’s not a law that protects anyone yet, it’s a mandate to study the problem, with 90 days to report the impact and 180 to propose measures. Diagnosis, not treatment. But the fact that it is precisely California, the state where most of these companies live, that is turning on the alarm light, says enough about where this is headed. <\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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After giving it a lot of thought, I’ve come up with three ideas, which for me is where the real kicker is.<\/p>

The first thing is that the problem is not AI, it’s the yardstick by which we are measuring it. When a company reduces all the value of artificial intelligence to “how many payrolls will I save this quarter”, it is asking the wrong question, and the Gartner study makes it very clear: the AI that really performs is the one that multiplies your people, not the one that replaces them at the drop of a hat.<\/b> Cutting is very easy, what is difficult, what really has merit, is to turn that cut into a return; and that is a very different story. <\/p>

The second thing is that the story has become detached from reality, and that, in the medium term, is paid for. We have a market that rewards with share rises the simple announcement of layoffs by AI even if the AI is not putting an extra euro in the income statement,<\/b> and as long as this continues, companies will continue to cut back whether or not they have underlying reasons, until one day the story bubble bursts and we realize, once again late, that confusing movement with progress is expensive.<\/p>

And third, which is what really matters if you make business decisions and why I’m writing this: don’t get sucked into the “everyone else is doing it” mindset. Before touching a team because you’ve plugged in an AI tool, stop and really measure if that tool is generating value or if you’re just following the trend,<\/b> because, according to the study itself, most of those who cut back didn’t see a return anywhere. They were basically trying their luck. And trying your luck with your people’s lives seems to me to be a luxury that no company that takes itself seriously should afford. <\/p>

It seems to me that a year from now we will look back on 2026 as the year in which too many people confused cutting with transforming. Let’s hope I’m wrong… <\/p>

How about you? Have you seen up close any “AI firings” that, upon closer inspection, were actually something else with a better story? Tell me about it in the comments; you learn a lot from those cases. <\/p>

Have a good week!<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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There is a phrase that has become very fashionable on boards. It goes something like this: “We are implementing AI to be more efficient”. Said out loud it sounds impeccable,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":33923,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241,237,230],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-33924","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ai","category-personal-en","category-reflections"],"yoast_head":"\nThe unprofitable AI layoff and the study that should give more than one CEO sleepless nights. - Salvador Vilalta<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The unprofitable AI layoff and the study that should give more than one CEO sleepless nights. 11,000 people in one day\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/salvadorvilalta.com\/en\/the-unprofitable-ai-layoff-and-the-study-that-should-give-more-than-one-ceo-sleepless-nights\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The unprofitable AI layoff and the study that should give more than one CEO sleepless nights.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The unprofitable AI layoff and the study that should give more than one CEO sleepless nights. 11,000 people in one day\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/salvadorvilalta.com\/en\/the-unprofitable-ai-layoff-and-the-study-that-should-give-more-than-one-ceo-sleepless-nights\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Salvador Vilalta\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-06-08T10:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/salvadorvilalta.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/EJECUTIVO-PREOCUPADO-.webp\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"714\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/webp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Salvador Vilalta\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Salvador Vilalta\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"10 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":[\"Article\",\"BlogPosting\"],\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salvadorvilalta.com\\\/en\\\/the-unprofitable-ai-layoff-and-the-study-that-should-give-more-than-one-ceo-sleepless-nights\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salvadorvilalta.com\\\/en\\\/the-unprofitable-ai-layoff-and-the-study-that-should-give-more-than-one-ceo-sleepless-nights\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Salvador Vilalta\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salvadorvilalta.com\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/46bbea2a058bb4eace536ab893edc68b\"},\"headline\":\"The unprofitable AI layoff and the study that should give more than one CEO sleepless nights.\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-06-08T10:00:00+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salvadorvilalta.com\\\/en\\\/the-unprofitable-ai-layoff-and-the-study-that-should-give-more-than-one-ceo-sleepless-nights\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1953,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salvadorvilalta.com\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/46bbea2a058bb4eace536ab893edc68b\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salvadorvilalta.com\\\/en\\\/the-unprofitable-ai-layoff-and-the-study-that-should-give-more-than-one-ceo-sleepless-nights\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salvadorvilalta.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/EJECUTIVO-PREOCUPADO-.webp\",\"articleSection\":[\"AI\",\"Personal\",\"Reflections\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/salvadorvilalta.com\\\/en\\\/the-unprofitable-ai-layoff-and-the-study-that-should-give-more-than-one-ceo-sleepless-nights\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":[\"WebPage\",\"ItemPage\"],\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salvadorvilalta.com\\\/en\\\/the-unprofitable-ai-layoff-and-the-study-that-should-give-more-than-one-ceo-sleepless-nights\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salvadorvilalta.com\\\/en\\\/the-unprofitable-ai-layoff-and-the-study-that-should-give-more-than-one-ceo-sleepless-nights\\\/\",\"name\":\"The unprofitable AI layoff and the study that should give more than one CEO sleepless nights. - 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